ETO Markets Global Pulse: WTI Rallies 2.57%, Brent Breaks 100

Market Review

According to ETO Markets monitoring, on September 9 (Wednesday), WTI crude rose sharply and closed at USD 96.67 per barrel, up 2.57% on the day. This marked its highest close since May 22. Brent crude closed at USD 101.59 per barrel, up 2.3%.

WTI had already broken above USD 90 and quickly moved above USD 95, showing that markets are pricing in higher risks of Middle East supply disruption.

On September 10 (Thursday) during Asian trading, WTI crude extended its strong move and traded near USD 96.64 per barrel. Brent crude also moved back above USD 100. Both benchmarks strengthened together, showing that supply-side risks remain the main driver of oil prices.

Global Headlines

Trump Sees Post-Midterm War End

Trump said he expects the US war with Iran to end “immediately” after the US midterm elections in November. He also expects oil prices to fall sharply after the war ends. Trump said the US is not currently seeking talks with Iran. He added that oil prices may take slightly longer to decline after the election, but still believes they will drop sharply once the conflict ends.

Iran Warns Stronger Retaliation Ahead

Before Trumps remarks, US media cited senior Iranian officials as saying Tehran has no intention of backing down. Iran said that if the US continues to attack Iranian territory and infrastructure, Tehran will step up its counterattacks. The comments show that major differences remain between the two sides on military action and negotiation space.

Trump Says Putin Wants Deal

Trump said he had a good conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin and that the two sides may hold a bilateral meeting. Trump said Putin “wants to make a deal,” and that it would be “very good” if Ukrainian President Zelenskyy also wanted a deal. The comments added focus to the outlook for Russia-Ukraine talks and future diplomatic arrangements.

Treasury Raises Long-Bond Buyback Cap

The US Treasury raised the maximum size of buyback operations for Treasuries with remaining maturities of 10 to 20 years to USD 6 billion. This is three times the original USD 2 billion plan and above the USD 4 billion cap used in a similar operation on August 19. Treasury Secretary Bessent previously said larger buybacks are intended to ease market volatility. After the announcement, Treasuries weakened and the 10-year yield hit a near three-year high.

FED Considers Fewer Rate Meetings

The FED is discussing changes to its schedule of eight policy meetings per year. One proposal would keep six rate-decision meetings and add two meetings for macro and strategic discussions. At least one-third of officials are open to reducing the number of rate meetings, including six regional FED presidents. The discussion is part of a broader internal review, with five external review groups expected to submit recommendations by year-end.

ETO Markets Analyst View (WTI Oil)

From the daily chart, WTI crude remains in a clear bullish trend. Prices have broken above the key USD 90 and USD 95 levels, while short-term moving averages are spreading higher. Market momentum has strengthened notably.

As prices approach the USD 100 psychological level, the market should first watch short-term resistance around USD 96.50 to USD 97.00. If WTI breaks above USD 97 effectively, the next targets may be the USD 98 area and the USD 100 level.

The USD 100 level is now the most important medium-term target and resistance area for WTI bulls. On the downside, USD 95 has gradually shifted from resistance into short-term support. If prices stay above USD 95, the daily bullish structure remains intact.

If a sharp pullback occurs, the first support area is near USD 93, followed by the USD 90 level. As long as USD 90 is not broken effectively, the current uptrend has not been fundamentally damaged.

Technical indicators show that strong price gains still reflect bullish momentum. However, after the recent rally, technical overbought risks are also rising. As WTI approaches USD 100, wider price swings may become more likely.

The market continues to reprice the outlook for the US-Iran war, Middle East supply disruption risks, US Treasury buyback operations, and potential changes to the FED meeting schedule. Short-term oil volatility may continue. Traders should carefully assess market timing and risk exposure.

Disclaimer

The information contained herein is for general reference only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any financial products.

ETO Markets does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses incurred from reliance on such content.