Gold Smashes $4,700 Barrier as Bond Vigilantes and Geopolitics Fuel 'Super Spike'

The precious metals complex is severing its traditional inverse correlation with real rates, rallying in tandem with rising bond yields in a signal of profound systemic distress. Spot gold made history on Tuesday, crossing the $4,700 per ounce threshold, while silver teased the $95 mark.

Market Snapshot

• Gold Price: $4,700 per ounce
• Silver Price: $95
• US 30-year Yield: 4.88%
• YTD Performance: 9%

The Drivers: Fiscal Fear and Tariffs

The rally—up nearly 9% in the first month of the year alone—is being driven by a shift in investor psychology. Capital is moving from 'return on capital' to 'return of capital.'

Path to $5,000?

Institutional sentiment remains overwhelmingly bullish. Strategies at Union Bancaire Privee describe the environment as an era of “resource nationalism,” for which gold is the premier hedge. Meanwhile, State Street quantifies a nearly 40% probability of gold testing $5,000 within the next six to nine months.

Technicals

• Momentum is undeniable, though indicators like the RSI suggest overbought conditions in the short term.
• Central bank accumulation provides a strong support floor, making dips likely to be shallow.
• Silver has broken out of a consolidation pattern, with technical targets suggesting a move toward $112.