Will he stay or will he go？ With criminal probe over, Fed Chair Powell faces big decision

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is likely in his final weeks at the central bank helm and now faces a choice, following a Justice Department decision Friday, of whether he stays on at the institution.

U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro announced in a social media post that she was referring a criminal probe into renovations at Fed headquarters to the central bank's inspector general, effectively removing the Justice Department from the investigation for now.

While a significant move on its face, it's even more important as Powell has vowed to stay on until the criminal probe is resolved.

Now that a decision has been made he faces a choice: Does he follow historic precedent and walk away from the Fed, as most other prior chairs have done, or stay on for the final two years of his term as governor?

The decision could have important ramifications for policymaking at an especially delicate time.

“Powell has kept his cards close to his chest. If the investigation had never taken place we think he would have left the Fed completely on May 15,” Krishna Guha, head of global policy and central bank strategy at Evercore ISI, said in a note. “But, we think the DoJ move may well have come too late – and the threat of restarting the probe is too inconclusive – for Powell to leave on May 15.”

Instead, Guha reasoned, Powell may stay on for a time even if he doesn't fill the full governor's term that expires in January 2028.

President Donald Trump has threatened to fire Powell if he doesn't leave on his own after his term as chair expires.