USDJPY: 86% of Retail Traders Are Long

U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen Short 9 hours ago 4 Grab this chart Grab this chart 3 3 119 My current bias on USDJPY remains bearish, but I am not interested in selling at the current market price. After rejecting the weekly supply zone around 163.70–164.00, USDJPY delivered a strong bearish expansion. Price subsequently retraced into the 159.80–160.40 area, where it swept liquidity above the local highs before continuing lower. This move produced three important technical signals: • A clear break of the ascending trendline • A loss of the 155.00–155.20 support area • A bearish sequence of lower highs and lower lows USDJPY is now trading around 153.47, inside a major weekly demand zone extending approximately from 152.20 to 157.50. My preferred scenario is a corrective move toward 154.80–155.30. This area represents the previous support that has now been broken and could act as resistance. If price reaches this zone, collects liquidity and produces a bearish confirmation on H1 or H4, I will look for continuation toward 152.20 and potentially 151.50. Retail sentiment supports this bearish scenario. Approximately 86% of traders are long USDJPY, with an average entry price near 156.48. Only 14% are short. From a contrarian perspective, this extreme positioning suggests that a large number of retail traders remain trapped in losing long positions, leaving potential sell-side liquidity below the recent lows. However, the broader positioning data provides a reason for caution. According to the COT report dated September 1, non-commercial traders hold a net-short position of approximately 92,227 contracts on the Japanese yen. During the latest reporting week, they reduced JPY longs by 11,171 contracts and added 17,758 shorts. Since weakness in JPY generally supports USDJPY, the COT positioning is not aligned with my bearish technical bias. Seasonality is also moderately bullish. USDJPY has historically recorded a positive average performance in September across the 2-, 5-, 10-, 15- and 20-year samples, with the strongest results appearing in the 5- and 10-year averages. This creates a clear divergence: • Technical structure: bearish • Retail sentiment: bearish from a contrarian perspective • COT positioning: bullish for USDJPY • September seasonality: moderately bullish My primary scenario remains a retracement into 154.80–155.30 followed by bearish confirmation. My first target would be 152.20, with 151.50 as the extended objective. A sustained recovery above 156.50 would weaken the bearish scenario, while a daily close above 157.50 would invalidate it and increase the probability of a broader recovery toward 159.80–160.40. EdgeTradingJourney Follow Following 📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis. Also on : Chart Patterns COT fed Fundamental Analysis Gold ict opec signals strategy Trend Analysis USDJPY Disclaimer The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use . Chart Patterns COT fed Fundamental Analysis Gold ict opec signals strategy Trend Analysis USDJPY EdgeTradingJourney Follow Following 📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis. Also on : Disclaimer The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use .