U.S. Launches Military Operation; Geopolitical Risk Escalates Sharply

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[Figure 1: U.S.–Iran Situation Overview]

In the early hours of February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel jointly launched a military operation code-named Operation Epic Fury. Multiple precision-guided missiles struck the Supreme Leaders compound in central Tehran.

According to satellite imagery and subsequent confirmation by Iranian state media, Iran‘s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed while “conducting official duties” in his office at the compound. The strike is being described as one of the largest regime decapitation operations in modern warfare history. Among those reportedly killed were Iran’s Minister of Defense, Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, and the Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, along with other senior military and political officials.

President Donald Trump later stated: “We are confident that Khamenei is dead. This is an opportunity for the Iranian people to reclaim their country.”

Strait of Hormuz Effectively Shut

In direct retaliation for what it labeled a “decapitation strike,” Irans Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced on the evening of February 28 a ban on all vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

The waterway, which carries approximately 20% of global crude oil supply, has effectively ceased operations. Real-time maritime tracking data show oil tankers at the Persian Gulf exit reducing speed to zero, with several supertankers reversing course at the entrance of the Strait. Although U.S. officials maintain that the Strait “remains open,” global insurers have reportedly withdrawn coverage, triggering an immediate surge in shipping costs and geopolitical risk premiums.

Analysts estimate that a prolonged disruption could drive crude oil prices above $120 per barrel and add approximately 0.7 percentage points to global inflation.

Military Deployment and Evacuations

As the U.S. deploys both the USS Gerald R. Ford and the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike groups to the Middle East, multiple countries including the U.S., China, India, and Canada have issued emergency evacuation orders.

• United States: Ordered diplomatic families and non-essential personnel to leave Israel immediately, warning citizens to “depart today.”

• China: Issued an urgent advisory urging citizens not to travel to Iran and calling on those currently in the country to evacuate as soon as possible.

• Regional Developments: Explosions have been reported in Tehran, Qom, and Isfahan. Israel has declared a nationwide state of emergency, relocating hospital facilities underground and warning citizens to prepare for potential missile and drone retaliation.

Market Implications – Analyst Summary

• Energy Risk Premium: Oil prices and tanker equities (such as DHT Holdings and Frontline) are expected to experience extreme volatility amid the Strait blockade.

• Safe-Haven Assets: Gold and silver have extended gains significantly following the outbreak of hostilities, emerging as primary destinations for risk-off capital flows.

• Inflation and Rates: Energy-driven price pressures could offset prior disinflation trends, potentially forcing central banks—particularly the Federal Reserve—to further delay anticipated rate cuts.

• Volatility Surge

/>[Figure 2: VIX Volatility Index – Source: MacroMicro (M平方)]

As hostilities intensify, golds safe-haven function has fully materialized. Prices surged vertically above 5,300, accelerating further after clearing that level and briefly testing the 5,400 resistance zone intraday.

However, consecutive upper-shadow candlesticks at elevated levels indicate waning momentum, suggesting the market is entering a consolidation phase following the sharp rally.

• Gold Technical Analysis (H1 Chart)

/>[Figure 3: Gold H1 Hourly Chart Analysis]

• Candlestick Analysis

• 5,400 remains the primary resistance level and has not been decisively breached.

• 5,300 has transitioned into key near-term support. A breakdown below this level would increase the probability of a pullback toward 5,200.

• The short-term trading range has shifted upward to 5,300–5,400.

• MACD Analysis

The MACD histogram has expanded rapidly and moved further above the zero line, reflecting strong bullish momentum. However, the indicator is also entering overbought territory, warranting caution for potential momentum exhaustion and corrective risk.

• Trading Outlook

Chasing prices at elevated levels is not advisable. Long positions may be considered on pullbacks toward 5,300 provided support holds. If 5,400 fails to break decisively, traders should remain alert to the risk of high-level consolidation and retracement.

Resistance Level 1: 5,400

Support Level 1: 5,300

Support Level 2: 5,200

• Risk Disclosure

The above views, analysis, research, price references, or other information are provided for general market commentary purposes only and do not represent the official position of this platform. All readers assume full responsibility for their investment decisions. Please trade prudently.